What if climate change made your morning coffee scarce, expensive, or even a thing of the past? It sounds dramatic, but the reality is unfolding before us. The climate crisis is already affecting the things we buy daily. You might not always think about it, but from chocolate to wine, many of our favourite indulgences rely on stable temperatures, predictable rainfall, and healthy ecosystems. Coffee, in particular, is very susceptible to climate shifts, and the places where it grows are under increasing threat. What does the changing and unpredictable climate mean for the future of your morning kickstarter?
The economics of coffee
Did you know coffee is the second most valuable commodity in the world, after oil? Global coffee prices have always been very prone to fluctuation over the years, as sudden extreme weather events can cause direct shortages of global demand. However, these days extreme weather events occur more frequently affecting global production. Climate change does not only affect coffee farmers, it will also directly hit your wallet.
In the early 1990s, coffee was traded at around $0.50 per pound. By the mid-2010s, prices had surged past $2 per pound, and in recent years, fluctuations driven by extreme weather and supply chain disruptions have pushed prices even higher. In 2021, frost in Brazil contributed to a 60% price spike in just a few months.
In 2024, coffee prices already soared to the highest in 50 years, to over $3,36 a pound. According to coffee traders and café owners, it won't be a surprise that we may soon see $12 lattes as supply struggles to keep up with demand (Reuters, 2024). Some experts warn that coffee prices could double in the coming years (Macrotrends, 2024).
The Coffee Belt: where does coffee grow?
The origin of coffee remains uncertain, but the first cups were likely enjoyed somewhere in Yemen or Ethiopia. Subsequently, western explorers and traders quickly spread the coffee bean across the world, making it a part of our daily lives.
Nowadays, most of the world’s coffee beans are grown in just a handful of countries situated in a belt around the equator, with Brazil and Vietnam as the real coffee powerhouses. Brazil accounts for about 37% of global coffee production, while Vietnam contributes approximately 17%. Combined, these two countries produce over half of the world’s coffee supply (International Coffee Organization, 2023).
Overall, the world produces around 10 million metric tons of coffee annually, with key producers including Colombia, Ethiopia, and Honduras (FAO, 2023). Climate projections indicate that suitable coffee-growing areas could shrink by up to 50% by 2050, creating further instability in global supply.
Main coffee producing countries:
Brazil: 39%
Vietnam: 16%
Colombia: 8%
Indonesia: 5%
Ethiopia: 5%
Plant with an altitude
To understand better why coffee is so vulnerable to climate change, we must dive into the properties of this picky and demanding plant. There are two types of coffee plants —Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora (better known as robusta)— that thrive under very specific conditions.
Arabica, the bean behind the most special coffees, grows best at elevations between 1,200 and 2,200 meters, requiring temperatures between 18-22°C and consistent rainfall. Robusta, often used in instant coffee and espresso blends, can tolerate slightly warmer temperatures and lower altitudes but is still vulnerable to climate fluctuations.
The process of cultivating coffee is painstaking. It begins with tiny seedlings that need shade and careful nurturing. After several years, the trees bear cherries— yes, these are red, fleshy fruits that encase the precious beans. These cherries must be harvested at the perfect moment, and then meticulously processed until the seed, the so-called coffee bean, can be dried, and roasted to become the coffee we know and love (NOAA, 2024).
Extreme weather events complicate coffee farming
The special characteristics of the plant combined with rising temperatures force farmers to higher altitudes in search of cooler climates. Unfortunately, there’s only so much mountain to climb before they run out of land. Meanwhile, erratic rainfall patterns disrupt flowering and fruit development. A single unexpected frost, flood, or drought can devastate an entire season’s crop.
In 2021, a series of extreme frosts in Brazil— an event almost unheard of—destroyed vast coffee plantations, sending global prices soaring. In Vietnam, the second largest coffee producer, heavy rains in late 2023 ruined harvests, further tightening supply. Hurricanes sweeping through Central America have also left devastation in their wake.
Potential new coffee regions
As traditional coffee-growing regions become less viable, new areas may emerge as potential coffee hubs. Some studies suggest that parts of Argentina, Chile, the southern United States, or even the north of Spain could become viable for coffee cultivation. However, whether that is truly realistic remains uncertain.
However, coffee plants take several years to mature, and climate change is progressing much faster. Farmers cannot simply move plantations overnight, and investments in new land, infrastructure, and expertise require time. Even in regions where coffee might theoretically thrive, deforestation, soil conditions, and local economic factors pose additional challenges (National Geographic, 2024).
Shifting patterns of coffee production will have devastating effects on future generations of coffee farmers and producers. Approximately 120 million people worldwide depend on coffee for their livelihoods. First of all coffee farmers have built up knowledge and expertise for generations. Secondly, their lands may not be suitable for other crops or large-scale farming, therefore it can be difficult to switch to other agricultural practices.
Fair coffee as a solution
What can I, as a coffee addict, do? While large-scale system change is needed to fight the drivers of the climate crisis, you can still make a difference. Some coffee companies encourage farmers to use regenerating farming techniques and adapt to extreme weather events. You can support brands that prioritise sustainability—through fair trade, agroforestry, or carbon-neutral operations— and help create demand for responsible production.
Additionally, you can prepare yourself by treating coffee as a high-quality product rather than a cheap, mindless habit. Appreciating each cup means understanding the effort behind it.
And maybe, after reading all this, you may wonder about the environmental impact of your beloved cup of coffee. We answered that question in our example LCA on coffee and tea which you can read here.
Many people then dilute coffee with cow milk, oat milk, or soy milk. Interested in the environmental impact of these products, read our analysis here.
